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Why Is Trump a Tariff Man?

By marcus follow marcus   2019 Dec 5, 8:29pm 1,763 views   71 comments   watch   nsfw   quote   share    


Why Is Trump a Tariff Man?

Good read for those with an open mind.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/opinion/trump-trade-tariffs.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out. The most commonly given explanation for these bad results is that Trumpian tariff policy is creating a lot of uncertainty, which is giving businesses a strong incentive to postpone any plans they might have for building new factories and adding jobs.

In that case, however, why doesn’t Trump do what the markets keep wrongly expecting him to do, and call it quits? His continuing tariff obsession seems especially strange given growing evidence that it’s hurting him politically.

It’s important to realize that Trumpian protectionism wasn’t a response to a groundswell of public opinion. As best as I can tell from the endless series of interviews with white guys in diners — who are, we all know, the only Americans who matter — these voters are driven more by animosity toward immigrants and the sense that snooty liberals look down on them than by trade policy.

And public opinion seems to have become far less protectionist even as Trump has raised tariffs, with the percentage of Americans saying that free trade agreements are a good thing as high as it’s ever been.

So Trump’s trade war is losing, not gaining, support. And one recent analysis finds that it was a factor hurting Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for a significant number of lost congressional seats.

Nevertheless, Trump persists. Why?

One answer is that Trump has long had a fixation on the idea that tariffs are the answer to America’s problems, and he’s not the kind of man who reconsiders his prejudices in the light of evidence. But there’s also something else: U.S. trade law offers Trump more freedom of action — more ability to do whatever he wants — than any other policy area.

The basic story is that long ago — in fact, in the aftermath of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 — Congress deliberately limited its own role in trade policy. Instead, it gave the president the power to negotiate trade deals with other countries, which would then face up-or-down votes without amendments.

It was always clear, however, that this system needed some flexibility to respond to events. So the executive branch was given the power to impose temporary tariffs under certain conditions: import surges, threats to national security, unfair practices by foreign governments. The idea was that nonpartisan experts would determine whether and when these conditions existed, and the president would then decide whether to act.

This system worked well for many years. It turned out, however, to be extremely vulnerable to someone like Trump, for whom everything is partisan and expertise is a four-letter word. Trump’s tariff justifications have often been self-evidently absurd — seriously, who imagines that imports of Canadian steel threaten U.S. national security? But there’s no obvious way to stop him from imposing tariffs whenever he feels like it.

And there’s also no obvious way to stop his officials from granting individual businesses tariff exemptions, supposedly based on economic criteria but in fact as a reward for political support. Tariff policy isn’t the only arena in which Trump can practice crony capitalism — federal contracting is looking increasingly scandalous — but tariffs are especially ripe for exploitation.

So that’s why Trump is a Tariff Man: Tariffs let him exercise unconstrained power, rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. Anyone imagining that he’s going to change his ways and start behaving responsibly is living in a fantasy world.

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32   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 7, 6:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
Goran_K says
I wish all these stupid academics, do-nothings, bloviating tenured Piled Higher and DEEPER assholes, would shut the fuck up about the economy. They don't know shit.

If we had listened to such geniuses like lefty hero Paul Krugman, or other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald. I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.



I don't have fuck you money, but combined with my investments in precious metals, couple of properties, and how hot the market has been, I'm planning to retire with nearly $5,000,000+ to spend in retirement, with stupid low living expenses (I even grow my own veggies now and never buy produce from the store).


Agreed. Krugsheister is one of the worst. The last 2 years I made more money ...


Precisely. Most of these people are Bernie type socialists anyway and wouldn’t work even if they had the opportunity. Lazy government theft supporters who would rather Uncle Bernie give them”free shit” stolen from the productive sector of the work force.

Gotta love Krugman though, telling people of a huge recession ready to hit in late 2016. Then the market goes on basically a 36 month straight hot streak (with a slight slowdown in Fall 2018 due to trade war worries).

Now no one is worried about a trade war because China is the only one getting fucked. The rest of us are making money hand over hand like crazy.

The “resist types” are still crying over 2016, I’m giddy looking at what I’m going to invest in next during Trumps 2nd term. So much opportunity out there.
33   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 7, 7:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?

Looks like a chart where Democrats look to send jobs overseas? I could be wrong. Not that Bush promoted it as an agenda, but this is a pretty damning graph for Democrats as it crashed when Clinton got in office and same with Obama (after a couple years). Foreign fiscal policy doesn't happen overnight. It takes years for decisions to make a dent in that graph.

So reading the graph, Democrats are bad for trade for the US. Thanks for showing us this.
34   NoCoupForYou   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 7, 9:00am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran_K says
other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.




You should make the dollar amount flash v so I can send it to him on tweety
35   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 7, 10:51am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

WookieMan says
but this is a pretty damning graph for Democrats as it crashed when Clinton got in office and same with Obama (after a couple years). Foreign fiscal policy doesn't happen overnight. I


With republicans it's always hard to tell whether they are lying, or just stupid.
36   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 7, 11:47am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

NoCoupForYou says
Goran_K says
other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.




You should make the dollar amount flash v so I can send it to him on tweety


Democrats in a nutshell.


Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”
37   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 7, 11:49am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

28,000 now, a 155% gain.
38   Tenpoundbass   ignore (14)   2019 Dec 7, 11:50am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Ass, Grass or Cash nobody rides for Free!
39   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 7, 11:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says

Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?


Yes our net exports were definitely declining under Obama. Your chart goes up to the end of his blighted second term.
40   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 7, 11:56am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
28,000 now, a 155% gain.


lol

Imagine if he just left that in a dividend paying index fund, let alone putting the entire $100,000 into AAPL in the low 100s.

Trump is making these guys look stupid as fuck.
41   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 7, 11:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran_K says
Fucking fags.


That’s what they do. Mostly with each other.
42   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 7, 1:30pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
With republicans it's always hard to tell whether they are lying, or just stupid.

Not sure your point. Does the graph posted not indicate that the net exports have collapsed under Democrats? It's a graph you posted and I'm just making an observation. I know you think I'm a righty right guy, but that's far from the truth. You've posted a graph that shows what is actually pissing Americans off and you're still missing it.
43   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 7, 5:31pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran_K says
Shaman says
28,000 now, a 155% gain.


lol

Imagine if he just left that in a dividend paying index fund, let alone putting the entire $100,000 into AAPL in the low 100s.

Trump is making these guys look stupid as fuck.

Eh. Much of my AAPL is under $2.
44   SunnyvaleCA   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 7, 5:32pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran_K says
Democrats in a nutshell.


Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”

Trump didn’t win until November, so I’m not sure how he know trump would be next president.
45   theoakman   ignore (0)   2019 Dec 7, 5:44pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Being a Democrat and not actually sticking to his guns.... he probably didn't sell shit
46   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 8:02am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

SunnyvaleCA says
Goran_K says
Democrats in a nutshell.


Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”

Trump didn’t win until November, so I’m not sure how he know trump would be next president.


I guess he was predicting Hillary would lose.

Here’s the actual tweet, he never deleted it.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/780478635786383360?lang=en
48   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 8:06am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

theoakman says
Being a Democrat and not actually sticking to his guns.... he probably didn't sell shit


Normally I would agree, but I think he did. He has at least half a dozen post over 4-5 months explaining his theory about a “dollar collapse” and using overseas markets as a “shelter” for his wealth.
49   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 8:09am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

You know who actually may have been an acolyte of this guy? Iwog.

A lot of the things Eichanwald posted were eerily similar to things Iwog was saying before the election. Wish I could find the post where he said he went all cash and was predicting a massive US recession. Anyone remember those post?
50   Onvacation   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 8, 8:45am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Goran_K says
You know who actually may have been an acolyte of this guy? Iwog.

A lot of the things Eichanwald posted were eerily similar to things Iwog was saying before the election. Wish I could find the post where he said he went all cash and was predicting a massive US recession. Anyone remember those post?

After Trump won, the market didn't crash, and the earth stopped warming, Iwog deleted all of his posts, tried to hack patnet, and has never been heard from again, at least not in a duck costume.
51   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 8:52am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Onvacation says
Goran_K says
You know who actually may have been an acolyte of this guy? Iwog.

A lot of the things Eichanwald posted were eerily similar to things Iwog was saying before the election. Wish I could find the post where he said he went all cash and was predicting a massive US recession. Anyone remember those post?

After Trump won, the market didn't crash, and the earth stopped warming, Iwog deleted all of his posts, tried to hack patnet, and has never been heard from again, at least not in a duck costume.


Whoa he tried to hack patNet?

When did this happen? Dude must’ve been super ashamed of his content.
52   mell   ignore (6)   2019 Dec 8, 9:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Lol Eichenfraud has been getting destroyed on Twatter on this one. Don't be like Kurt.
53   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 9:17am     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

:
There is some gambling logic that most of you guys don't understand.

Sometimes you get rewarded for doing the wrong thing. Sometimes you get punished for doing the right thing.

If you fold in poker, and the guy shows you a bluff, does it mean you did the wrong thing ? (of course it does sometimes)

I'm not saying that the guy was necessarily correct for selling his stocks when he did. But those people who held their stocks becasue they believed in Trump, may have been rewarded for entirely other reasons than a cause and effect of some kind of "Trump effect."

Who is President is not near the top of the list of reasons the stock market goes up or down. Although it's reasonable to fear the effect of an incompetent President on the market.

That's not to say that Trump won't get some credit for it, or that he won't get blame if there is a massive crash before his term ends.
54   RC2006   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 8, 9:22am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Trump has been for tarrifs for decades, dems would say they are to if they thought it would give them a win but everyone including most democrats know it would be purely lip service at this point. If trump hadn't ran we would have had tpp and it would be business as usual no matter which side won.
55   mell   ignore (6)   2019 Dec 8, 9:30am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
:
There is some gambling logic that most of you guys don't understand.

Sometimes you get rewarded for doing the wrong thing. Sometimes you get punished for doing the right thing.

If you fold in poker, and the guy shows you a bluff, does it mean you did the wrong thing ? (of course it does sometimes)

I'm not saying that the guy was necessarily correct for selling his stocks when he did. But those people who held their stocks becasue they believed in Trump, may have been rewarded for entirely other reasons than a cause and effect of some kind of "Trump effect."

Who is President is not near the top of the list of reasons the stock market goes up or down. Although it's reasonable to fear the effect of an incompetent President on the market.

That's not to say that Trump won't get some credit for it, or that he won't get blame if there is a massive crash before his term ends.


It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest. All Bullish for an economy. I'd say the effect was predictable.
56   Shaman   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 8, 9:38am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

mell says
It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest. All Bullish for an economy. I'd say the effect was predictable.


https://patrick.net/post/1300205/2016-12-14-the-coming-economic-boom

Ya, pretty predictable!

Unless you’re a math teacher who is terrible at math!
57   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 11:14am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Shaman says
mell says
It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest. All Bullish for an economy. I'd say the effect was predictable.


https://patrick.net/post/1300205/2016-12-14-the-coming-economic-boom

Ya, pretty predictable!

Unless you’re a math teacher who is terrible at math!


Credit where it’s due. Called it spot on.
58   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 11:17am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
I'm not saying that the guy was necessarily correct for selling his stocks when he did. But those people who held their stocks becasue they believed in Trump, may have been rewarded for entirely other reasons than a cause and effect of some kind of "Trump effect."


Uh no. Eichanwald was completely incorrect and stupid for selling. He based his decision on democrat lefty FUD and propaganda and he paid for it.

As Shaman said (time stamped in 2016), there were many predictable factors to show why Trumps presidency would lead to a boom. The Democrats and left in general just ignored it, now they want to vote for BeRniE sanders to steal those gains from the productive part of the workforce.

Fuck Democrats.
59   mell   ignore (6)   2019 Dec 8, 11:41am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I don't understand how the left can be so wrong on everything and still have roughly 50% followers. Also I don't think everybody on the other side is a 100% Trump man - though he has been running a great show - it's more that everybody on the other side is for anyone else but a modern Democrat. If you have any stake in the future, family whatsoever you need to stop voting left. In Britain the Dad of one murdered student literally supercucked and twattered to Trump not to use his kid's death for propaganda. How low can you stoop, instead of taking the next available narwhal tusk and express send that camelfucker right away to his 72 virgins in heaven to revenge your kid's brutal murder you cuck like a sniveling pussy hatter. Unfuckingbelievable. Have some self respect.
60   Goran_K   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 11:59am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

Democrats don’t want to defend themselves, they don’t want to make their own money, they don’t want to do any work whatsoever. Everything government , government, health care for all, paid for by someone else.
61   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 12:10pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

mell says
It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest.


I attribute it to low interest rates and possibly to a very small degree the tax cuts (but we pay for those somehow later - i.e. debt increased by a commensurate amount). Interest rates aren't low becasue of Trump. They are low for the same reason they were even lower for many years after the crash.

But then, I'm more honest than you, becasue I'm not giving Obama more credit than he is due either. That is, in general I admit that Presidents don't affect the market that much. You would only admit it if the market was way up during a democrat admin, such as Clinton.

If confidence in leadership affected the markets as much as you think it does, then Trump surely would have caused a bear market. Becasue global and domestic leaders nearly all see him as an incompetent nitwit.
62   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 12:13pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

:
On the one hand I fear another Trump term. But on the other hand I really want him to get credit/blame for the ultimate long term effects of his policies.

Not worth it though, if it were to lead to world war.
63   WookieMan   ignore (5)   2019 Dec 8, 12:36pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Becasue global and domestic leaders nearly all see him as an incompetent nitwit.

How do you know this? Have you conversed with other world leaders? Maybe they're projecting when they get caught with a hot mic acting like they themselves are tough guys against Trump with other world leaders.

Unless you've personally had a conversation, and frankly you'd have to have a relationship in some form with a foreign leader, you know nothing. Literally nothing. Anything in the press saying Trump (or anyone) is a incompetent nitwit is all an opinion. Stop making opinions fact. They're not.
64   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 1:01pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

:
You may be right, that I make some assumptions about how others, and history for that matter, judge, or will judge Trump's character.

I do know republicans that voted for Trump, but at least admit how much of an idiot he is. I also know of highly respected republicans such as George WIll that refuse to respect anything about Trump. You can argue that Will is part of the elite or the deep state, but I think he simply speaks very obvious and undeniable truths.

I think that an interesting way to put it is as follows:

It's self evident
65   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 8, 1:48pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

I'm more honest than you, becasue I'm not giving Obama more credit than he is due either.

Seriously? You have been preaching all along that Obama is the sole reason for the Trump recovery, and how the Obama recovery is so strong it even continues despite Trump.
66   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 1:52pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

:
Actually what I've said is that the trend in economic stats is a continuation of what happened in the Obama years. Which was a recovery from the crash and the great recession.

Obama did a good job of presiding over the recovery. Certainly he didn't screw it up. But the President can only do, or not do so much. The best thing Obama did, is something Trump can not do, which is project an intelligent, stable, sober, and thoughtful, pragmatic image of U.S. leadership.
67   ignoreme   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 8, 2:03pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Certainly he didn't screw it up.


Having a recovery after a recession isn’t surprising. You’d have to try real hard to not have a recovery. Only two options after a recession is recovery or cannibal anarchy.

What is surprising is that the bull market has continued for a record period at this point. Unemployment is at historic lows, and everything is significantly better then what any economist was predicting. Hmmm what could be the cause of that? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?
68   HeadSet   ignore (2)   2019 Dec 8, 2:05pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
:
Actually what I've said is that the trend in economic stats is a continuation of what happened in the Obama years. Which was a recovery from the crash and the great recession.

Obama did a good job of presiding over the recovery. Certainly he didn't screw it up. But the President can only do, or not do so much. The best thing Obama did, is something Trump can not do, which is project an intelligent, stable, sober, and thoughtful, pragmatic image of U.S. leadership.


Interesting. You went from Obama was responsible for the current economic great time, to a "President can only do so much," which implies slow growth under Obama or rapid growth under Trump had nothing to do with either President, to a bit where it does not matter anyway because Obama has a better personality than Trump.
69   marcus   ignore (11)   2019 Dec 8, 3:19pm     ↓ dislike (1)   quote   flag      

:
I can't help you with your reading comprehension.

Saying that the current economic trajectory started in 2010 or so with the first 6 years being " Obama years" says nothing about Obama being the primary causal factor.

HeadSet says
slow growth under Obama or rapid growth under Trump


Really ? You've been consuming too much right wing propaganda.
:
70   Fortwaynemobile   ignore (3)   2019 Dec 13, 8:57am     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

They have no stake in the future. None. They are fucked up, they suicide their kids by pushing tranny/gay shit onto them. They don’t care about future, only chasing hedonistic pleasures and harassing normal people because that gives them sadistic joy.

Goran_K says
zzyzzx says
Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?

Still waiting on an answer for this one.


Because most lefty assholes would rather we weaken the US economy and even go into a recession so "Trump loses".

Fucking fags.
71   EBGuy   ignore (1)   2019 Dec 13, 5:43pm     ↓ dislike (0)   quote   flag      

marcus says
Not worth it though, if it were to lead to world war.

We're already fighting the Third Opium War.

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