2019 Dec 5, 8:29pm
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The truth is that even economists who opposed Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs are surprised by how badly they’re working out. The most commonly given explanation for these bad results is that Trumpian tariff policy is creating a lot of uncertainty, which is giving businesses a strong incentive to postpone any plans they might have for building new factories and adding jobs.In that case, however, why doesn’t Trump do what the markets keep wrongly expecting him to do, and call it quits? His continuing tariff obsession seems especially strange given growing evidence that it’s hurting him politically.It’s important to realize that Trumpian protectionism wasn’t a response to a groundswell of public opinion. As best as I can tell from the endless series of interviews with white guys in diners — who are, we all know, the only Americans who matter — these voters are driven more by animosity toward immigrants and the sense that snooty liberals look down on them than by trade policy.And public opinion seems to have become far less protectionist even as Trump has raised tariffs, with the percentage of Americans saying that free trade agreements are a good thing as high as it’s ever been.So Trump’s trade war is losing, not gaining, support. And one recent analysis finds that it was a factor hurting Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, accounting for a significant number of lost congressional seats.Nevertheless, Trump persists. Why?One answer is that Trump has long had a fixation on the idea that tariffs are the answer to America’s problems, and he’s not the kind of man who reconsiders his prejudices in the light of evidence. But there’s also something else: U.S. trade law offers Trump more freedom of action — more ability to do whatever he wants — than any other policy area. The basic story is that long ago — in fact, in the aftermath of the disastrous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930 — Congress deliberately limited its own role in trade policy. Instead, it gave the president the power to negotiate trade deals with other countries, which would then face up-or-down votes without amendments.It was always clear, however, that this system needed some flexibility to respond to events. So the executive branch was given the power to impose temporary tariffs under certain conditions: import surges, threats to national security, unfair practices by foreign governments. The idea was that nonpartisan experts would determine whether and when these conditions existed, and the president would then decide whether to act.This system worked well for many years. It turned out, however, to be extremely vulnerable to someone like Trump, for whom everything is partisan and expertise is a four-letter word. Trump’s tariff justifications have often been self-evidently absurd — seriously, who imagines that imports of Canadian steel threaten U.S. national security? But there’s no obvious way to stop him from imposing tariffs whenever he feels like it.And there’s also no obvious way to stop his officials from granting individual businesses tariff exemptions, supposedly based on economic criteria but in fact as a reward for political support. Tariff policy isn’t the only arena in which Trump can practice crony capitalism — federal contracting is looking increasingly scandalous — but tariffs are especially ripe for exploitation.So that’s why Trump is a Tariff Man: Tariffs let him exercise unconstrained power, rewarding his friends and punishing his enemies. Anyone imagining that he’s going to change his ways and start behaving responsibly is living in a fantasy world.
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Low is bad here. It's a large negative number. A large deficit. What planet are you on ?
other lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.
but this is a pretty damning graph for Democrats as it crashed when Clinton got in office and same with Obama (after a couple years). Foreign fiscal policy doesn't happen overnight. I
Goran_K saysother lefty economic guru Kurt Eichenwald , I literally would have left over a million dollars on the table listening to their "doom and gloom" shitty predictions and theories.You should make the dollar amount flash v so I can send it to him on tweety
28,000 now, a 155% gain.
With republicans it's always hard to tell whether they are lying, or just stupid.
Shaman says28,000 now, a 155% gain.lolImagine if he just left that in a dividend paying index fund, let alone putting the entire $100,000 into AAPL in the low 100s.Trump is making these guys look stupid as fuck.
Democrats in a nutshell.Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”
Goran_K saysDemocrats in a nutshell.Notice the date. Even if this guy had only $100,000 in the market total, how much money did this stupid Democrat fuck leave on the table because “ReSiST!!!”Trump didn’t win until November, so I’m not sure how he know trump would be next president.
Being a Democrat and not actually sticking to his guns.... he probably didn't sell shit
You know who actually may have been an acolyte of this guy? Iwog.A lot of the things Eichanwald posted were eerily similar to things Iwog was saying before the election. Wish I could find the post where he said he went all cash and was predicting a massive US recession. Anyone remember those post?
Goran_K saysYou know who actually may have been an acolyte of this guy? Iwog.A lot of the things Eichanwald posted were eerily similar to things Iwog was saying before the election. Wish I could find the post where he said he went all cash and was predicting a massive US recession. Anyone remember those post?After Trump won, the market didn't crash, and the earth stopped warming, Iwog deleted all of his posts, tried to hack patnet, and has never been heard from again, at least not in a duck costume.
:There is some gambling logic that most of you guys don't understand. Sometimes you get rewarded for doing the wrong thing. Sometimes you get punished for doing the right thing. If you fold in poker, and the guy shows you a bluff, does it mean you did the wrong thing ? (of course it does sometimes) I'm not saying that the guy was necessarily correct for selling his stocks when he did. But those people who held their stocks becasue they believed in Trump, may have been rewarded for entirely other reasons than a cause and effect of some kind of "Trump effect." Who is President is not near the top of the list of reasons the stock market goes up or down. Although it's reasonable to fear the effect of an incompetent President on the market. That's not to say that Trump won't get some credit for it, or that he won't get blame if there is a massive crash before his term ends.
It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest. All Bullish for an economy. I'd say the effect was predictable.
mell saysIt was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest. All Bullish for an economy. I'd say the effect was predictable.https://patrick.net/post/1300205/2016-12-14-the-coming-economic-boom Ya, pretty predictable! Unless you’re a math teacher who is terrible at math!
I'm not saying that the guy was necessarily correct for selling his stocks when he did. But those people who held their stocks becasue they believed in Trump, may have been rewarded for entirely other reasons than a cause and effect of some kind of "Trump effect."
It was clear Trump would reduce red tape, use tariffs and promote low interest.
Becasue global and domestic leaders nearly all see him as an incompetent nitwit.
Certainly he didn't screw it up.
:Actually what I've said is that the trend in economic stats is a continuation of what happened in the Obama years. Which was a recovery from the crash and the great recession. Obama did a good job of presiding over the recovery. Certainly he didn't screw it up. But the President can only do, or not do so much. The best thing Obama did, is something Trump can not do, which is project an intelligent, stable, sober, and thoughtful, pragmatic image of U.S. leadership.
slow growth under Obama or rapid growth under Trump
zzyzzx saysWhy do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?Still waiting on an answer for this one.Because most lefty assholes would rather we weaken the US economy and even go into a recession so "Trump loses". Fucking fags.
Why do you support communist slave labor from a country that doesn't care about the environment?Still waiting on an answer for this one.
Not worth it though, if it were to lead to world war.
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